WASHINGTON
Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly will enter the 2022 election cycle as one of the nation’s most vulnerable governors and Republican challengers are beginning to line up.
Kelly, 70, is the only incumbent Democratic governor up for re-election in a state that President-elect Joe Biden lost in November.
Then there’s history of midterms, which are always tough on the party that holds the White House. John Carlin was the last Kansas Democrat to win a gubernatorial race with his party in the Oval Office. That was in 1978, during Jimmy Carter’s presidency.
All subsequent Democratic wins, including Kelly’s 2018 victory over then-Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, came when a Republican was president.
While the 2020 campaign season has scarcely ended, potential 2022 GOP contenders are already busy. The next six months will be their time to gauge the interest of donors and build name recognition with voters. Campaigns for governor typically launch in the spring and summer of the year before the election.
The Wall Street Journal kicked off an early round of speculation this week, floating Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as a possible candidate. The former Wichita congressman said he intends to return to the state at some point.
But while Kansas Republicans agree the outgoing secretary of state would be a formidable contender, his name does not dominate the political conversation in the state right now.
“There’s rumor and speculation. I haven’t heard from any of the candidates at all. But obviously, (former Gov.) Jeff (Colyer) is going to be in the mix. Kobach is certainly a possibility. Heck, even somebody like a (Sen. Jerry) Moran might be a possibility,” said state Rep. William Sutton, a Gardner Republican.
Jeff Colyer, who served as governor for 11 months in 2018, and Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, who has won three statewide races by double digits, are emerging as the early top contenders, according to political insiders.
“Your two that are right now the most likely to run are Schmidt and Colyer. Both of them spent the fall running around the state helping candidates, which is always a sign they’re interested in furthering their careers,” said Kelly Arnold, former chairman of the Kansas Republican Party and the elected clerk of Sedgwick County.
“But I think there are other possibilities out there,” Arnold added, noting that Kansas House Speaker Ron Ryckman’s name has also come up as a potential contender.
Kansas’ top law enforcement official
The year Kelly won the governorship, Schmidt won a third term as attorney general by 18 percentage points.
“I think there’s a lot of respect for him and what he’s done for that office,” said Arnold, who pointed to Schmidt’s work on consumer protection issues as a strength.
Schmidt, 52, has already flirted with a couple of runs for higher office.
He weighed races for Congress and governor in 2018, but opted for a third term as Kansas’ top law enforcement official. Schmidt also explored a run for Senate in 2020, but decided against joining the crowded field.
He’s looking closely at the governor’s race again, two sources close to Schmidt said.
In a state with a longstanding feud between the moderate and conservative wings of the GOP, Schmidt has usually managed to win support from both.
He worked as a legislative aide for moderate Republican Sen. Nancy Kassebaum and special counsel for moderate Republican Gov. Bill Graves early in his career. Both Graves and Kassebaum endorsed Kelly over Kobach in 2018.
Schmidt also served as Kansas Senate majority leader for six years before his first run for attorney general in 2010 —a time when moderates made up a larger portion of the state Senate. His ties to moderates could be an asset in the general election, but could also make him vulnerable to attacks from the right during a primary.
As attorney general, Schmidt has made numerous gestures to the party’s conservative base, signing onto multiple lawsuits seeking to overturn the Affordable Care Act and other policies enacted by former President Barack Obama.
He has also used his office to prod Kelly, issuing an opinion in May that questioned the legality of COVID-19 restrictions enacted under Kelly’s emergency powers.
State Rep. Ken Rahjes, an Agra Republican, called Schmidt a friend and said he would support his candidacy. He pointed to the party’s April state convention in Manhattan as the likely setting for campaign launches.
“I would think the candidates that are considering running for governor will make that final decision, if they haven’t already, in the coming days and announcements will be made early next year,” Rahjes said.
The once and potentially future governor
Colyer, 60, served as the state’s chief executive for a little less than a year after Gov. Sam Brownback was confirmed for a diplomatic position in President Donald Trump’s administration.
The Johnson County plastic surgeon lost a historically close primary to Kobach by just over 300 votes. Kobach went on to lose the general election to Kelly by nearly 5 percentage points.
Colyer earned goodwill in the party by campaigning enthusiastically for Kobach after choosing to concede rather than pursue a recount. Supporters remain convinced that he would have given Kelly a stronger race had he won the nomination.
He has repeatedly hinted at his interest recently saying that he would make the decision after the 2020 election.
“Dr. Colyer still travels the state quite a bit, keeping up with old friends and making new ones. Everywhere he goes, people are asking him to run and offering their support,” said Colton Gibson, Colyer’s spokesman.
“I’m very hopeful,” Gibson added.
In 2020, Colyer’s allies emerged victorious in a slew of races. He was an early endorser of Congressman Roger Marshall’s successful U.S. Senate campaign and Colyer’s former lieutenant governor, Tracey Mann, won the election to replace Marshall in the 1st Congressional District.
Colyer also personally recruited Treasurer Jake LaTurner to run in the 2nd Congressional District. LaTurner ousted incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Watkins and went on to win the general election.
The political apparatus that powered these campaigns to victory will still be around in 2022 and three federal lawmakers will owe Colyer favors.
“Kansas Republicans are looking for a leader for 2022. When they needed one in 2020 Jeff Colyer stepped up when no one else would, and it worked,” said David Kensinger, Brownback’s former campaign manager and chief of staff, about Colyer’s involvement in the 2020 races.
“Seems like he’s the leader.”
Colyer never closed his gubernatorial campaign account after his 2018 primary defeat.
In August, he even previewed a potential line of attack against Kelly by pointing to the state’s surplus when he left office.
“I gave them a $900 million surplus there. They’ve got to show how they use it,” Colyer said.
He didn’t mention that the surplus was largely attributable to the repeal of Brownback’s tax cuts. Brownback vetoed the measure but was overridden by a bipartisan coalition that included both Kelly, then a state senator, and Ryckman, the Republican House speaker.
The man with the supermajority
Ryckman, 48, broke a 60-year tradition in seeking and winning a third term as Kansas House speaker rather than retiring after two terms.
It ensures that Olathe Republican will remain one of the state’s most influential lawmakers for the next two years, bolstered by the GOP’s continued veto-proof supermajority.
It will give Ryckman an opportunity to play foil against Kelly as they clash on the pandemic response and other issues.
Both Sutton and Arnold pointed to Ryckman as a potential contender for the governorship, but the speaker was coy when asked about his interest.
“I’ve been asked about it, but for now I’m focused on helping to get our economy and our school kids through the pandemic,” Ryckman said in a text message.
Kelly spokesman Sam Coleman offered a similar line when asked about the 2022 race, saying the governor’s “attention is squarely focused on the upcoming legislative session where she will continue to work to keep Kansans healthy, protect small businesses, and prevent reckless and extreme fiscal policies that threaten our state’s economic recovery.”
Arnold said Ryckman is less known statewide than Colyer or Schmidt, but as a legislator he “has a strong voting record that he’d be able to run on.”
Both Carlin and his successor, Republican Gov. Mike Hayden, served as Kansas House speaker before their elections as governor.
Pompeo, Moran and other wildcards
Two federal officeholders would immediately become frontrunners if they chose to enter race: Pompeo, who opted against a Senate run this year, and Sen. Jerry Moran, who is up for re-election in 2022.
But neither of those candidacies appear likely at this time. Pompeo told The Wall Street Journal he “hasn’t given half a second’s thought to the political races in the state of Kansas.”
Arnold, who has served as party chair during Pompeo’s time as congressman, said Pompeo, 56, would be welcomed back to Wichita. But he said the secretary of state is more likely to pursue private sector opportunities after his tenure in President Donald Trump’s administration ends next month, rather than immediately run for office.
Moran, 66, will be senior member of the federal delegation next year. He explored a run against Sebelius in 2006, but chose to stay in Congress and won election to the U.S. Senate four years later.
Rumors of a potential run for governor have circulated through Kansas political circles throughout 2020, but Moran’s spokesman, Tom Brandt, said last month the Republican senator plans to seek re-election to his Senate seat.
If he changes his mind, it would create another open U.S. Senate race in Kansas just two years after this year’s content to replace retiring GOP Sen. Pat Roberts.
Kobach, who lost the GOP primary to replace Roberts two years after losing the general to Kelly, is a potential candidate for either governor or Senate. But his stock will be greatly diminished after back to back losses.
Other unsuccessful candidates from recent years, including Kobach’s 2018 running mate Wink Hartman and Senate President Susan Wagle, who dropped out of the Senate race before the filing deadline, have also come up in conversation among Republicans as potential candidates.
“We want a robust primary to bring the best candidate,” Rahjes said. “I think that’s the biggest thing. I would hate to tell one person, or to tell others, ‘Well, we’re saving this for this one individual.’”
This story was originally published December 09, 2020 5:00 AM.
