As Missourians gear up for a historic vote to overturn the state’s abortion ban in November, new polling suggests that the constitutional amendment currently has enough voter support to pass.
The poll, released Thursday by Saint Louis University and British pollster YouGov, found that a majority, 52%, of those surveyed supported the proposed constitutional amendment to overturn the ban while 34% disagreed. The remaining 14% said they were not sure.
The results indicate that the measure, called Amendment 3, has gained more support over the summer. Previous polling released in March showed 44% of Missourians backing the amendment, which raised questions about whether it would receive more than 50% of the vote required to pass.
The new survey of 900 likely Missouri voters was conducted between Aug. 8 and Aug. 16, the same week the amendment was officially certified for the Nov. 5 ballot. It has a margin of error of 3.79%. The poll also asked voters to weigh in on a host of other issues, including results that suggest voters also support ballot measures to legalize sports betting and raise the minimum wage.
Steve Rogers, an associate professor of political science at Saint Louis University who directed the poll, attributed the increase in support to voters becoming more aware of the abortion rights measure after it was certified for the ballot.
The poll also illustrated the idea that although Missourians support the abortion rights amendment, they also overwhelmingly support Republican politicians who typically hold staunch anti-abortion views.
The results showed every Republican candidate, from Sen. Josh Hawley to Attorney General Andrew Bailey, with double-digit leads over their Democratic opponents ahead of the November election.
But some of those same voters who support Republicans are in favor of the abortion right amendment. For example, roughly 32% of voters who support Hawley also support overturning the state’s abortion ban, the poll showed.
“Missouri is a red state,” Rogers said. “But it does not mean that Missourians, up and down, have conservative views on everything.”
While Missouri has consistently elected Republicans to statewide offices, voters have also regularly passed progressive policies at the ballot box such as legalizing marijuana, expanding Medicaid and overturning a right-to-work law — which would have prevented unions from requiring employees to pay union dues.
Fight over abortion rights
The amendment that will appear on the ballot would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution but also give lawmakers leeway to regulate the procedure after fetal viability.
The ballot measure defines fetal viability as the point in a pregnancy when a health care professional decides, based on the facts of the situation, “there is a significant likelihood of the fetus’s sustained survival outside of the uterus without the application of extraordinary medical measures.”
Missouri became the first state in the nation to enact a ban on abortion after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. The ban has faced an onslaught of criticism, including from medical providers, and does not include exceptions for rape and incest.
Since the fall of Roe v. Wade, every ballot measure seeking to expand abortion access, from Michigan to Ohio, has succeeded. But Missouri is poised to become the first state to overturn a near-total ban.
Abortion rights supporters have consistently touted broad support for expanding access to the procedure and will hope to turn that support into voter turnout in November.
Rachel Sweet, the manager of the abortion rights campaign, called Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, previously said it was “clear Missourians overwhelmingly support reproductive freedom and will have the chance to make their voices heard at the ballot box.”
Abortion opponents will also likely campaign to defeat the amendment by attempting to frame the measure as a sweeping expansion of abortion access. Anti-abortion groups quickly signaled that messaging after the amendment was certified earlier this month.
“Missourians are smart and they don’t like their freedom and safety being stolen from them, and once they learn the real truth about this amendment will vote it down,” Stephanie Bell, a spokesperson for the anti-abortion group Missouri Stands with Woman, previously said.
Two Republican lawmakers and an anti-abortion activist are also seeking to block the amendment from the ballot through a lawsuit filed last week.
In addition to the abortion question, the poll also showed that 57% of respondents supported a proposed ballot measure to raise the state’s minimum wage and 50% supported a measure to legalize sports betting.
This story was originally published August 29, 2024 6:00 AM.
